Wireless in 5-10 Years: How Will Network Architectures Look?

This post is by Rajiv Chandrasekaran, director of technology development, RF Power Amplifiers, CommScope 

As a director of technology development, I try to predict what wireless networks architectures will look like in the years ahead. Obviously, no forecaster is perfect.  But as I survey what’s occurred over the past few years and look at trends today, I believe there will be a re-ordering of the key influencers determining future wireless network architectures. For this discussion, let’s focus on the US. I believe the key players in the US will be the following, in descending order of influence:

1. Content providers such as: Google, Apple, Amazon and media companies such as Disney, CBS, CNN, Fox, Cablevision and Comcast
2. Device manufacturers such as: Apple, Samsung, and Google
3. Network operators such as: AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, T-Mobile, and Sprint
4. Equipment manufacturers such as: Ericsson, Huawei, NSN, ALU, Cisco, IBM, and HP

Why this order? Because content providers and handset manufacturers are the most profitable, empowering them to have more influence over the networks of tomorrow. Thus, the choice of network technology standards (such as LTE) will be driven by device manufacturers and not solely by infrastructure OEMs and operators. This likelihood is supported by how AT&T is accelerating its LTE deployments today, Verizon’s migration from CDMA to LTE, and Sprint’s abandonment of WiMAX for LTE. The content and devices are increasingly impacting how operators evolve their wireless networks.

Content providers typically want to sell information, advertising, and content to anyone, anywhere. Therefore, mobile applications will impose new requirements on the network architecture. Since mobiles likely won’t have adequate storage or processing capabilities to address newer applications, cloud-based storage and applications will become the norm. Content providers will want to provide wired backhaul (fibre and/or copper) as close as they can to the end user.

The challenge for the wireless infrastructure vendor then is to move this content from the backhaul to the mobile user. I don’t believe a single wireless channel will ever have adequate capacity to support the full range of intended applications. For example, 10 MHz LTE can only provide 75Mbps (peak) for all users. Therefore, data aggregation over multiple channels (Wi-Fi and LTE, licensed and unlicensed) will likely become the norm. Hence the base stations of tomorrow will need to aggregate data across multiple paths and transfer seamlessly to the mobile. Innovations will be required to manage the quality of service and delays across such implementations. LTE will become the norm since most new mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets support LTE.

Attend LTE North America 2012 to hear from the leading US carriers including AT&T, MetroPCS, Verizon, US.Cellular, T-Mobile USA and Clearwire. To see the full speaker line up click here. The conference is on the 14-15th November 2012 at the Fairmont Dallas Hotel, Texas. Click here to download the full conference program.

Voicing our fears over data: the iPhone, the app and the police.

A remarkable story caught my eye yesterday. It’s not specifically LTE related but nevertheless I thought I’d flag it, as it’s data related. As reported in depth here by The Next Web, the founder of VoIP app Viber was met at the airport by police after using his app on the in-flight wifi on a Delta Airlines flight in the US. Viber is an smartphone app that lets you make calls, send video or texts to another device that also has it installed – but crucially doesn’t require any login, making it ‘always-on’  It has just launched beta apps for Windows Phone 7 and Blackberry, joining iPhone and Android, so it’s going to get real big, real soon.

It seems Talmon was chatting away when a flight attendant told him that it was against the rules to use VoIP on the air. He immediately ended the call, but when he was told it was against FAA rules he challenged this. Then he was told it was against the terms of service of the GoGo wifi service – which he again disputed. He was then handed an FAA brochure and when he took a picture of this the flight attendant felt he was being difficult, made quite a leap, and informed him that he would be met at the airport by the police. Remarkably, he actually was.

Fortunately the police realised that he had done little wrong and did not charge him.

Talmon states in an email response to comments on The Next Web article that he ended the call immediately when requested and that he was, “very polite, no raising my voice, no cursing, no abuse whatsoever.”

It does seem something of an overreaction by Delta to have called the cops on him. I have an iPhone with Viber installed. I might easily have done the same

Of interest here is that the supplying of an affordable data connection on a flight is what led to this. These services have been available for a while so it’s perhaps surprising that this hasn’t actually happened before. VoLTE will of course be treat voice as data, but it will still require network coverage to operate so that won’t be an issue. However, as more and more people become used to using apps they will realise that they can make calls when they have no network coverage but do have internet access.

The FAA is actually clear that it is not its policy to block VoIP calls but does not have a policy on this, and states clearly:  “This is not an FAA restriction; they are simply responding to the overwhelming majority of their customers, who prefer silent communications to the public nature of Voice-over-Internet-Protocol (VoIP) calls.”

In fact, Talmon had actually broken the GoGo terms of service. The question is then, why is that restriction there? Is GoGo worried about bandwidth? Presumably it’s fine to watch, or at least try and watch, a YouTube video on GoGo, so a compressed audio only call should not be an issue.

It could be purely a social etiquette issue then – people will not want other barking loudly into their phones in a confined area on a plane. Fair enough. If that’s the case then, then why has the company that runs GoGo introduced a Android smartphone designed specifically for use on its service? That seems a little contradictory.

Clearly it’s still early days for VoIP and the boundaries between safety, social etiquette and commercial concerns still need to be worked out. Let’s hope it can be done soon and hopefully without involving the police.

LTE, today, tomorrow: when should operators commit?

This is the first in a series of guest blogs from significant voices in the industry with something to say about LTE. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

Lyn Cantor is president of Tektronix Communications, a provider of service assurance solutions to global operators.

There’s no doubt that demand for data is driving the network carrier market, but while LTE networks will become more pervasive over the next decade they will not all launch at once.  However, while individual carriers have entirely different market environments to cope with the shift in the market has already begun.

In fact, this year promises to be a watershed for LTE. A recent forecast from Juniper Research estimates that the number of LTE subscribers will reach 428 million by 2016; with a surge in growth taking place in 2012.Many wireless operators are taking stock of the economic and competitive environment in their respective markets and considering their LTE roll-out options. It may no longer be a case of ‘if’ an operator will launch an LTE network, but ‘when’.

The development of LTE in global markets will vary according to specific local market factors in addition to an operator’s ability to deliver data efficiently. Operators will make their move when there is a firm business case to do so, prompted by one of at least three possible scenarios.

The first is that an operator’s growth potential is crippled by the existing networks’ ability to cope with traffic demands. The second is that a rival launches LTE early to create the perception that it is leading the market. Third, there is the scenario where an incumbent operator, or new player, decides to adopt an entirely new ‘data driven’ business model.

Looking at LTE regionally, you can see that the U.S. market has taken the lead. The U.S. has enjoyed a head start with LTE because the operators have had to meet the demand for wireless data access, driven by the proliferation of new smart devices, and the need to reduce the cost of mobile broadband delivery. By way of contrast, in Europe, the operators have made a significant investment in 3G. These networks are at an advanced stage and the lack of major LTE deployments has resulted in less pressure to commit extensively to LTE. These factors, combined with spectrum allocation, will lead to a different rate of LTE expansion in Europe.

Operators now recognise the economic realities of LTE. As a result their mind-sets are switching from being a traditional voice and messaging provider to that of a mobile broadband supplier, providing, voice, messaging and data. They now appreciate the challenge they face in monitoring the volume of traffic flowing across their networks – and the ability to monetise that data as bandwidth increases. This will allow operators to cut their cloth accordingly; distinguishing between heavy users and more mainstream traffic, to expand their businesses to meet and sustain market demand going forward.

The opportunities, and potential barriers, which determine the switch to LTE are diverse and vary from region to region. However, one thing is certain. All operators will need to make the jump to LTE to deliver voice, messaging and data to a new breed of consumer.

For more debate on LTE, be sure to attend the LTE World Summit, taking place on the 23-24 May 2012 CCIB, Barcelona, Spain. Click here to register your interest.